Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Time Article Iran

The National Intelligence affirms that Iran is a threat

The Bush Administration: Plan is to pressure Iran in order to stop them from gaining the intelligence to complete nuclear bombs. They believe that easing up on the pressure would be a "tragic mistake".

Iran policy is a compromise between the hawks, who believe military action is needed, and Washington realists and European allies, who believe negotiating between the U.S. and Iran is the way to go. Iran can't be trusted and President Bush will not speak with Iran until they stop their production of enriched uranium. He is continuing to push coercive sanctions while leaving the option of military action "on the table".

Washington Hawks: This group doesn't want to risk failure to notice nuclear threats or intelligence that happened with Iraq. They believe military action should be kept on the table along with coercive sanctions to further pressure Iran.

Democrats and Republican 'Realists': This group supports negotiations with Iran. The administration's claims on activity in Iran has been "inflated" and there is no reason to seek military action. This group wants to attack the Bush Administration for inflating the threat of nuclear attack and push a new approach for diplomacy.

Israel: Recognizes the threat reported by the NIE and thinks that if the U.S. doesn't react on the information Israel will face mortal danger by an Iranian bomb. Israel will push the U.S. to take coercive action and persuade Europe to back up stronger sanctions.

Europe, China, Russia and Arabs: These European countries believe we should keep pressure on Iran to meet the UN demands but don't believe the NIE gave any threatening report. China and Russia don't see the need to strengthen sanctions against Iran.

Iran: Will not be "bowing" to any foreign power trying to weaken their uranium enrichment and nuclear programs. They insist on maintaining their current research rate.

It's hard to say what group has the best method of action when we don't know whether or not the Bush Administration is inflating the NIE reports or not. It is also hard to know whether or not Iran would use a nuclear bomb if it was concocted.

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